Tag Archives: Bust

Does phenomenal rise invariably rings in pathetic fall in max. of 4 years?

abcIndian iconic industrialist Ratan Tata retired at the age of 75 years from chairmanship of Tata group and appointed 46 years old Cyprus Mistry as his successor. This was indeed phenomenal rise of young Mistry. But recently, 4 years later, Cyprus Mistry has been sacked from chairmanship of the group for several reasons, one of the main being allegedly not following ethos of the group.

Is the fall of Cyprus Mistry attributable to his young age, inexperience or being a non-conformist?

John F. Kennedy rode to climax of his popularity and became US president at young age of about 44 years. But, less than 3 years later he was assassinated. Dark patches in his private life and assassination still remain a mystery. Bill Clinton became US president at the age of 46 years and rose to the crest of his popular appeal in about 4 years’ time and got reelected; but within 2 years thereafter, he was impeached by house of US representatives for a sex scandal. Barack Obama came to power as President at the age of 47 years and he seems to have sailed thru choppy waters during his 2 terms totaling 8 years but did not do anything phenomenal. Now, Donald Trump, despite a trail of scandals, has risen to peak of his popularity and been elected as US president at the age of 70 years. It remains to be seen how long he is able to sustain this peak.

Phenomenal boom of dot-com companies occurred in 1995 and lasted 4 years. Dot-com bubble started to bust from 1999 and it collapsed completely by 2001. US housing bubble peaked in 2004 and it busted in year 2007/2008, shattering financial markets worldwide. Iconic PC manufacturer Dell Inc. saw peak of its performance during period 1999 to 2003. From year 2004, Dell Inc. started its downward journey.

Do the above examples suggest that a rise, if phenomenal, has a limited period – perhaps a maximum of 4 years and then pathetic fall invariably follows?Non-conformist,

4 stages of phenomenal rise

Be it an individual, industry or institution, generally there are 4 stages of evolution of an exponential rise:

  1. Revolutionary idea or step
    It starts with a dramatically different but decent idea or step (like appointing or electing a very young person as leader) to address a formidable situation, crisis or an ambition.
    This can see a radical change at the top level in an organization, business model, product mix or disrupting existing practice/s.
    This stage brings lot of hopes and optimism at individual or collective level.
  2. Raising pitch
    In order to take all stake holders, customers or public in general together, an euphoria is generated by proponent/s of stage 1. Giving new vision, nice slogan/s or high sales pitches are very normal at this stage to sway the opinion of people.
  3. Razing partly or fully the old order
    Soon, realization comes that some or whole part of existing system is a stumbling block to implementation of stage 1 and only option is to dislodge it partly or fully.
    This is the stage that brings more pains than pleasure and gives birth to bête noire. Legacies and old ethos have to be bypassed.
  4. Rise
    Original idea now starts to show results. This stage also sows the seeds of greed for growth; but no one likes to look back until a climax comes.

Phenomenal rise would always prove to be premature!

Very idea of phenomenal rise is fraught with possibilities of pathetic fall.

At no stage of such speedy rise, there is enough time to broaden the base and strengthen qualities or support structure.

When you drive for height, you lose breadth in proportion. If you are young, you have energy but lack experience; you may be tough in your targets but slip on tenacity; you have to manage conflicts but with missing maturity.

During upwards journey, you are oblivious of fact that velocity and virtues, quantity and quality are mutually exclusive.

Sharp rise is only a short cut to growth and works for a short time – may be a max. of 4 years.

So, put your faith in something steady and solid in forward direction.

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Where would Big Data eventually lead us to!

Biggest buzz around the world today – Big Data! Last 15 years have seen dramatic change in the way we live and work. Today, we are leaving digital traces or signals behind for most of the things that we do and these are being captured by internet service providers, web hosting companies, search engine organizations, cell phone service providers and so on. When it comes to wellness and ways of living, lot of data gets generated, if you are using smart sensors and household gadgets. Your behavior as consumer, corporate employee and citizen can be and actually getting measured one way or another.

Enormity of data being collected can be understood by a simple estimate – data captured from the inception of human race until about year 2000 is being collected today in just 2 days and this speed is getting accelerated each day!

Scientifically as per quantum mechanics, our life comprises of digits 1-0. Interestingly, most of our actions are being digitally stored external to us and are accessible to people, we have no clue of!

Bigger data would bring bigger means and methods

Data are not merely being collected; but also analyzed through a variety of models called “analytics” and then presented to managers or individual users. These analytics present the information in descriptive, predictive or prescriptive form.

Big Data has brought and would further bring benefits in following areas:

  1. Statistical ability to understand past performance and anticipate results through trends and tendencies.
  2. Identifying problems or improvements.
  3. Consistency in decision making; actual decision may still be different and diverse.
  4. Better and consistent product quality and service to customers
  5. Driving cost lower and higher productivity.
    This would make bigger players even bigger and edge out smaller ones.
  6. Competitive strategies.
  7. Easier adaption to market dynamics.
  8. Following sectors would witness exponential growth:
    1. Internet, Web Hosting and Browsing and Search Engines
    2. Statistics, mathematical modeling, data mining and analysis
    3. Telecom hardware and hand held devices manufacturing
    4. Telecom services
    5. Cyber security
    6. Investigation industry
    7. Virtual war weapons and carriers for same
    8. Armaments for defense and destruction
    9. Wellness and medical fields
      Emphasis is expected to shift for customized treatments
    10. Social media

Bigger data would mean bigger conflict of interests and/or confusion

One thing that never goes down with humans is greed to get more information! When you have information, you can’t resist using it. If you can use it; you would also misuse it!!

When means take over morals, conflict of interests would start to reign. Many corporate managers are already complaining of big confusions with flood of data/information.

There are very clear signs that Big Data would bring:

  1. Private or public life to hinge on mechanics, not on morals.
  2. Quantity of data would make quality of data and decisions poorer.
    Nature does not permit quantity and quality to go concurrent indefinitely.
  3. Crucial Corporate or Government decisions would be clamped by mental abilities of data analysts.
  4. Nearly everyone stands to lose privacy and sleep.
  5. In name of upholding values and governance, Corporates and Countries would indulge in dirtier tactics.
  6. Rise in stress, blood pressure, heart and kidney related ailments and mental disorders.
    If you measure your blood pressure, it rises about 10 points compared to when you don’t measure. If you go to doctor for such information, you would find it at least 15 points more. If you start maintaining history of your blood pressure, your focus would be more on reading than its control!
  7. Rise of rivals and their retributions at company, community, private or public levels.

How to arrest fall from rise of Big Data

Drive for Big Data is driven by business interests. Social and ethical responsibilities have taken a back seat, if action of investigation agencies and individuals in some countries is any indication.

Hundreds of thousands of people are involved in data mining and analysis; so it is also difficult to regulate their attitude and approach. More the buzz for Big Data, more are chances of it getting busted.

There are 2 rules of nature in this context:

  1. Nothing – real or virtual – is one sided.
    By working on one aspect, we create the opposite. It is for this reason that one who can develop, can also dismantle or destroy. However advanced technology may go, it would never be immune to issues. This demands a balanced but not blind approach to data.
  2. When we observe or measure anything, we are bound to disturb that.
    It is a different thing that we fail to notice. An example is measuring your blood pressure as mentioned before or you wanting to say something; but becoming conscious only to fumble.
    Therefore, we need to define extent of measurement and monitoring.

If we want to save ourselves from perils of Big Data, we need to draw a line between means and morals, quantity and quality, reports and rationale. If we fail to do, what looks lucrative today would soon turn ludicrous!

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